Is Pessimism Ever Good?

To keep this year's goals, embrace humility with a dash of strategic pessimism.

Pessimism gets a bad rap. We’re told not to be negative, to always look on the sunny side of the street, to see the glass as half full rather than half empty. Studies support the notion that pessimism is bad for our mental health. My doctoral dissertation advisor, Dr. Lauren Alloy, even proved that having pervasive negative expectations for your future is a sufficient (though not necessary) cause of clinical depression.

And yet, relentless optimism has its own problems. The idea of toxic positivity suggests that we also suffer when we habitually suppress, stuff down, or deny our negative feelings - leading Swiss psychiatrist Carl Jung to proclaim about a century ago, “What you resist, persists!” Several decades of recent research have shown he was ahead of his time.

Another interesting finding about so-called “depressive realism” reveals that it’s not so much that depressed people are pessimistic, but that non-depressed people are a bit delusionally optimistic. This especially becomes a problem when we set medium- and long-term goals and try to follow through on them.

As many of us put our New Year’s resolutions to the test, we could do well to temper our confidence and stay vigilant about the ways our minds deceive us and thwart our goals. These are mostly unconscious tendencies, termed cognitive biases, that influence our thinking and behavior. Here are five to watch for:

1. Illusory superiority
This refers to believing that your willpower is better than most people’s. It’s similar to the better-than-average effect - the finding that, for example, 80% of drivers believe they’re in the top 50% of drivers or that most humans think they’re above average in intelligence (statistically impossible, of course).

This bias derails us because relying on sheer willpower - while neglecting to organize our environment to support new habits - doesn’t work.

2. False hope syndrome
Ever lull yourself into thinking you’re accomplishing something just by setting a goal? Guilty. How many times have I outlined a plan for working on my book or catching up with long-distance friends? Thinking about a change, jotting it down, scheduling it - it all feels so good! And while these steps help, deriving too much satisfaction from them can backfire by making us complacent.

3. Overestimating future willpower
Similar to illusory superiority, but with a temporal twist: We believe that when it’s time to hit the gym, we’ll have the same or better willpower than we do “now.” In reality, life happens. Facing an early alarm or dragging yourself to the gym after a ten-hour workday requires far more willpower than you had while mapping out your makeover over weekend coffee.

Poor sleep, fatigue, hunger, stress, burnout, cold, darkness, aches, colds, and other real or perceived obstacles have repeatedly stood between me and my dream of becoming strong and toned (whatever “toned” means - it sounds good). Sound familiar?

4. Moral licensing
You’ve crushed your goal of 10,000 daily steps during the first week of January. Congratulations! But here’s the catch: Being good gives us permission to be a little bad. The devil on our shoulder whispers, “You’ve done so well - why not skip a few days? Maybe a few more?”

5. What-the-hell effect
Psychologists occasionally show their sense of humor (unlike when they use terms such as “individuation” or “defusion”). When you fall off the wagon - practically guaranteed when making meaningful change - don’t self-flagellate. That glazed donut with sprinkles at the airport after waking up at 4:30am to catch a flight (which might or might not have happened this morning), after ten days of green-plus-protein breakfasts? That calls for self-compassion and re-commitment. The alternative (self-criticism and self-punishment) is likely to lead you to think, “What the hell, the day’s ruined. I might as well eat all the crappy-but-delicious food.”

To ponder

How can a dash of strategic pessimism work for you this year?

Plan for obstacles rather than fantasizing about smooth sailing. Build systems and environmental supports so you’re not relying on willpower alone. And expect setbacks. When you plan for them, they won’t derail you into that destructive what-the-hell spiral that turns one donut into a binge. Humility really does go a long way.

PS. If you’re interested, you can find my other articles on science-backed ways to stick with your goals, whether they’re New Year’s resolutions or not, at Salon and Psychology Today.